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How Much Gold Is There?

Even with modern technology gold is still incredibly difficult to find.

In total about 160,000 tonnes of gold have been taken out of the Earth.

That 160,000 tonnes is less than you might think. Formed into a single gold cube it wouldn’t quite cover a tennis court. In fact it would be 2 metres short. But that’s all the gold in the world.

Gold is being mined at about 2,600 tonnes a year, so the above ground supply is expanding at 1.6% per annum. This newly mined supply means the world's cube of gold - currently 20.2 metres across - is growing by just 11 cm per year.

All the world's gold will cover a tennis court when the above ground stock is 205,000 tonnes. This will be some time around 2025.

205,000 tonnes is approximately the sum of the current above ground stocks (approximately 160,000 tonnes) plus the aggregate un-mined known reserves of all the world's gold mining companies (approximately 45,000 tonnes).

That's all the world's gold - both above ground, and known about but still underground.

How Is That Gold Used?

Gold is not consumed in any meaningful sense. A tiny amount finds some use as false teeth because of its inertness, and some is used in electronics because of its non-corrosive nature and excellent conductivity.

But currently well over 95% of the world's gold is held as a wealth store - either in bullion vaults or as jewelry, which is generally considered a private monetary reserve (particularly in India, the world's biggest gold customer).

This stock of gold isn't disappearing, and its supply is growing at a very slow rate (1.6% pa) compared to its overall stock. This feature of a nearly fixed above ground quantity, growing slowly, has been true for about 4,000 years.

So you can now see that there exists a large, but not too large, and almost fixed quantity of gold in the world, almost all of which is held by its owners as a tangible store of wealth. That is something which is true of nothing else.

By contrast to gold's restricted supply our money systems are currently expanding out of control. Modern loose monetary policies - designed to keep the factories busy - are expanding the supply of currency, under political direction, by at least 11% per annum; and that's for the Euro, the most hawkishly managed of the modern world's major currencies.

In such circumstances gold's reliable rarity is again noticed by savers. Its great use is as a money proxy when artificial forms of money (which are far more common) are not being properly restricted in supply. In such times gold's unexpandable supply causes it to be a much more reliable store of purchasing power than currency. Nothing does this job so reliably and so well as gold, because nothing matches the unimpeachable rarity and stability of gold's above ground supply.

Better still, as people come to remember and appreciate this unique quality their demand for gold causes not just a retention of purchasing power, but a multiplication of it.

Gold - A Tool of Trade

Here's a 2,000 year old Roman explanation of a vital tool of trade.

"The origin of buying and selling began with exchange.Anciently money was unknown, and there existed no terms by which merchandise could be precisely valued. Every one, according to the wants of the time and circumstances, exchanged things useless to him, against things which were useful; for it commonly happens that one is in need of what another has in excess. But it seldom coincided in time that what one possessed the other wanted, or vice versa. So a device was chosen whose value remedied by its homogeneity the difficulties of barter."

Trade is right at the heart of human society, and it creates the need for this 'device' to store value for later exchange. The device needs homogeneity - constancy of form and quantity - which most governments attempt to deliver with paper money, and they are successful most of the time.

But when the going gets tough governments bend their own rules. They start to issue more and more money, and then nothing exists which matches the homogeneity of gold.

The Romans joined a long list of civilisations which chose gold as a reliable, apolitical, monetary medium. Before them there were the great classical civilisations of the Greeks, Persians, Ionians, and the Egyptians. After them there were many more, through the Spanish, French, Ottoman, British and American empires, all of them with gold based monetary systems. 

Gold's Record As Money

But every single one of those gold based currencies eventually failed - the gold stopped circulating as the money of normal transactions, as currency. So it’s best to avoid the misunderstanding of history which leads so-called “gold bugs” to regard gold as the world’s only true and permanent money, because the hard historical fact is that it has been tested - often - and it both disappears and re-appears, depending on the prevailing economic circumstances.

Yet what is different about gold and other forms of money is the way they disappear, and why. Because its natural qualities recommend it as a high quality form of money gold suffers from Gresham’s Law, a common sense law in economics which states that “bad money drives good money out of circulation”.

Think about it for a moment and you’ll see that given a choice of spending good money (gold) or bad money (inflating paper) you’d spend the paper and keep the gold as a store of value. So in an economy where economic and political considerations have combined to produce a paper currency running in parallel with gold, and where that currency is showing the early signs of being dangerously expanded in supply, then people will elect to hold on to gold and spend paper. Magnified millions of times by everyday transactions in a typical economy this eventually stops gold circulating as money.

For much the same reasons when their time is up paper currencies will pour into circulation as people look to buy hard assets, until eventually the best value you will get from the banknote is to use it as heating fuel.

This is the key difference. While paper money forms disappear permanently, and lose all their value, gold disappears temporarily, and retains its value over the very long term.

Every few years, and when circumstances are right, gold returns. It has a history of doing so which has lasted those 4,000 years.

Gold Can Multiply Your Wealth

The trick with gold is to understand the causes for these rolling phases, to recognise them, and to act appropriately.If you own gold at the right time you will own a fast appreciating asset when normal business assets, and money itself, are tumbling in value.Owning gold in good phase is very profitable. In the 5 years after the 1929 crash gold's investment purchasing power rose 17 times.In the decade of the 1970s gold's investment purchasing power rose 15 times.So far in gold's current re-emergence, with the economic situation looking every bit as as hostile as the 30s and the 70s, gold's price has multiplied by about 3 times. By comparison with those previous cycles it is still nearer the bottom than the top.

And Gold Can Destroy It Too

But don't forget gold lost nearly seven eighths of its investment purchasing power between 1980 and 2000. That was during the best period for growing businesses in the twentieth century.

That price slide shows that smart investors should not grow too fond of their gold! Even though it's currently pretty grim the time will come when the outlook for business has improved, and most people either will not have realised it, or will still be too nervous to do anything about it.

Then it will be smart to sell your gold, and use its purchasing power to invest in people and businesses, and to participate once again in the dynamic creation of wealth.

The people who manage to do this will be the smartest of all gold buyers. They are not hoarding gold for its own sake. They are positioning themselves to be able to invest actively in a recovery which is a long way off. By doing this they will be both profiting themselves and serving their communities at the same time. Capital which has not been adequately protected right now will simply not be there to invest in the business opportunities of the future.

Kisah Seram bersama Ismahalil

Kisah Seram bersama Ismahalil

Kitco - Commentaries - Gary Wagner

Kitco - Commentaries - Gary Wagner

Can you hear it?

Reports from China revealed that they imported 85.7 tons of gold in October, a 40-fold increase from October of the previous year. China may have imported as much as 500 tons of gold in 2011. Investors added over 170 tons of gold via their ETP holdings in 2011.

In the first 12 days of January investors purchased over 85,000 gold American Eagles from the U.S. Mint. At the current pace, the U.S. Mint could sell 140,000 gold coins this month. According to Bloomberg news, “The 2,359.638 metric tons of gold held in ETPs backed by the metal is within 1.5 percent of the all-time high set last month and exceeds the reserves of all but four central banks.”

“Gold and silver are money. Everything else is credit”— J.P. Morgan

Since the FOMC meeting concluded on Wednesday gold has gained nearly 4% in value. Following Ben Bernanke’s report, SPDR Gold Shares added 9 tons of gold to their inventory. Gold has increased almost 10% this year.

Can you hear it now?

Your feet feel the vibrations coming from the road. This is not a new experience. You are familiar with the sound, you understand what the vibrations mean: this year’s Running of the Bulls has already begun.

While others still wait for the classic running of the Bulls at San Sebastian, gold bulls have assembled and are active participants in this year's events. The multi-month corrective winter is over, and gold prices have advanced as we now experience the first rally of 2012.

This rally is part of a much greater bullish cycle, a super bull cycle. It can be characterized as a multiyear event characterized by price advances that conclude at a new record high that will be surpassed during the next subsequent rally. For the last 11 years gold has had a price gain, and the fundamental factors fueling this run are still solidly intact.

On December 16th of 2011 my commentary presented the possibility that this correction would terminate as a double bottom, which, after retesting the low of 1530, would begin an extended rally. In my last commentary we had the first real evidence that gold had retested that price point and found support. I issued my first buy recommendation for gold on January 2, 2012. Gold was trading at about 1580. Although I believed that gold prices had bottomed and would begin to move higher, hard technical evidence would still have to be forthcoming. When we look at gold prices well above 1700 there can be absolutely no doubt that the running of the bulls is in full swing.

The chart above is a weekly candlestick chart of cash gold. The simple 30-day moving average is now below the current price of gold, signaling an uptrend. A Japanese candlestick pattern called “Tower Bottoms” (analogous to the Western double bottom) has identified signaling support. It has been five weeks since gold traded off the intraday low reached at the conclusion of this last correction, and we are now immersed within this price advance. As this rally continues, more technical evidence confirms our assumption: gold has returned to its former glory and bullish disposition.

The chart above is also a weekly Japanese chart known as an average chart (Heinken Ashi). The strength of a Heinken chart is in its ability to identify trend. Variables such as trend reversals, trend continuations and trend strength are recognizable and actionable. In our current example, the last three weeks have been green Japanese average candles. The current candle has significant body size and an absence of a lower wick, two variables we look for identifying a bullish trend.

Additional confirming technical evidence can be seen in both the MACD (moving average, convergence, divergence) and long-term trend line. The MACD identifies the pivot point or reversal; this pivot point is identified within the Heinken chart as a change in candle color from red to green. Lastly, on a long-term basis on this weekly chart the price has remained above the long-term trend line. (See sidebar for a more detailed explanation of Japanese average charts)

The last piece of the puzzle is the addition of Elliott wave and Fibonacci technical analysis. It is through the combination of multiple indicators - both Western and Eastern - that allows the astute technical trader to gain valuable insight and information. The chart above is a daily Japanese average chart with both Elliott wave count and Fibonacci retracement levels. February's 2011 low of 1307 (C, 2) to December's low (C, 4) of 1525 contains one full impulse cycle. This cycle is comprised of eight total waves, with the first five (1-5) waves representing the impulse phase, and the last three (ABC) representing the corrective phase.

Think of Elliott waves as a Russian doll. Found within each wave is a set of smaller waves. The largest wave count (Major) contains an intermediate count below it. Major wave one, three and five will therefore be comprised of five intermediate impulse waves each. Waves one, three and five are impulse waves that will move in the prevalent direction of the trend. Waves two and four are corrective waves that will move counter trend. We have just entered the beginning of the last impulse wave in this cycle, the major fifth wave. The beginning of this rally that started at the end of December marks the beginning of the final major rally, which will conclude at a new record high price.

Effective trading is a science, but it is also an art. It is my contention that the combination of both Eastern and Western technical approaches has an uncanny ability to reveal and identify trends as well as key reversals. Filtering these signals with each other is a critical component for success. Where a pattern is found within the trend determines the strength or weakness of that signal. By looking at all of these methods together, one gains comprehensive market information. By combining these methods one can produce much greater insight than any of these techniques by themselves. They completely complement each other and naturally form a more synergistic approach to market forecasting.

"Under the gold standard, a free banking system stands as the protector of an economy's stability and balanced growth... The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit... In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation"

― Alan Greenspan

Side Bar: Heinken Charts

A standard candlestick chart uses the open, low, high and closes of a single time period to create the candle. The Japanese average candle takes into account the previous candles opening price and previous closing price, this creates a midpoint. It then uses this midpoint as the open for the current candle.

Heiken candle formula:

Close = (Open+High+Low+Close)/4

Open = [Open (previous bar) + Close (previous bar)]/2

High = Max (High, Open, Close) Low = Min (Low, Open, Close)

Visually candles allow for quick identification of trends. Of course candle color is the primary visual cue from these charts. Unbroken red declines and unbroken green price rallies are readily evident. However, there are two other key elements used in a Japanese average chart for market analysis. First is the body size of the candle. By comparing the body length to the prior candles one can ascertain whether the strength of the trend is growing or diminishing. A second important component is identifying whether the current candle has a tail. Look for an absence of a lower wick during a rally or the absence of an upper wick during a price decline.

It is easier to use and provides clearer information than a candlestick chart. In fact, Heiken Ashi is actually seen as an improved, updated version by Japanese investors who created both types of analysis. Because the numbers in a candlestick chart do not correspond and reflect each other, it is harder to identify or predict a trend. Because a Heiken Ashi chart is based on averages, candles are better related to each other and trends are more accurately predicted.

Gary Wagner
January 27, 2012

EMAS ADALAH ASET YANG MAMPU MENJANA PENDAPATAN,,

MULA MENABUNG EMAS SEKARANG!!!!




Modal *RM  3,500 dpt memiliki aset emas (999/24k)   50gm (bernilai RM 10,000)



Modal *RM  7,000 dpt memiliki aset emas (999/24k) 100gm (bernilai RM 20,000)



Modal *RM 10,000 dpt memiliki aset emas (999/24k) 150gm (bernilai RM 30,000)



Modal *RM 20,000 dpt memiliki aset emas (999/24k) 300gm (bernilai RM 60,000)
Modal *RM 60,000 dpt memiliki aset emas (999/24k) 900gm (bernilai RM 180,000)

"(harga tertera adalah contoh pengiraan ketika harga emas adalah RM200/gm.. )

SEMUA ORANG KINI MAMPU MEMPUNYAI ASET YANG MENJANA EKONOMI..!

BERTINDAK SEKARANG! Keterangan lanjut ;  

(http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/info.aspy=2011&dt=0813&pub=Utusan_Malaysia&sec=Rencana&pg=re_02.htm)

13/08/2011

Saranan Allahyarham Dato' Salleh Majid (mantan BSKL & Pengerusi Eksekutif Serambi Emas)

PERTAMA kali dalam sejarah harga emas melepasi AS$1,800 seauns. Ini berikutan kebimbangan pelabur di Amerika Syarikat selepas had hutang negara tersebut dinaikkan buat kali ke 75 dan kemungkinan kelegaan kuantitatif dilakukan lagi.

Emas dilihat sebagai pelaburan yang selamat memandangkan ketidakupayaan kerajaan tersebut mengatasi masalah ekonominya.Tindakan pelabur ini telah membuatkan Certified Gold Exchange dan J.P.Morgan Chase & Co mengemaskinikan ramalan kenaikan harga emas kepada AS$2,500 seauns.

Sejak 10 tahun lalu harga emas telah meningkat sebanyak 700 peratus (%). Kebimbangan pelabur bukan saja tertumpu kepada apa yang sedang berlaku di Amerika tetapi merebak kepada krisis hutang euro. Setakat ini Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Sepanyol dan Itali telah mengalami masalah defisit dan kemasukkan Itali, ekonomi ketiga terbesar di Eropah telah menambahkan kebimbangan para pelabur. Minggu lepas kita telah dikejutkan dengan keruntuhan pasaran saham dunia, seluruh dunia, bukan di Amerika sahaja, malahan Eropah dan Asia hilang nilai modal pasaran bernilai hampir AS$4.4 trilion. Walaupun keputusan Federal Reserve di Amerika tidak menaikkan kadar faedah melegakan pasaran sementara tetapi dari segi asas, Amerika dan Eropah masih lemah.

Walaupun kejatuhan di Malaysia dari segi peratusan lebih rendah daripada lain-lain bursa, tetapi dianggarkan RM91 bilion telah lenyap daripada nilai modal pasaran saham kita. Apabila pasaran saham runtuh, pelabur lari mencari tempat yang selamat dan salah satu yang paling selamat ialah emas. Beralih kepada pelaburan emas di Malaysia, pelaburan emas belum begitu menyerlah terutama sekali di kalangan orang Melayu. Kebanyakan orang Melayu gemar membeli barang kemas yang dicampurkan dengan logam lain dan bukan seperti emas ketul yang ketulenannya di paras 999.99.

Apabila barang kemas dijual balik potongan sebanyak 30 sehingga 40 peratus dikenakan daripada harga semasa. Oleh itu ada baiknya melabur dengan emas yang ketulenannya 999.99.

Saya ingin menyarankan koperasi-koperasi melabur dalam emas. Kita lihat lima tahun dulu harga emas seauns ialah AS$520 dan hari ini sudah mencecah AS$1,800. Pelaburan inilah yang bukan saja boleh menguntungkan koperasi sendiri tetapi juga ahli-ahlinya. Keahlian keseluruhan koperasi di negara kita tidak kurang daripada 8 juta orang. Bayangkan kita dapat meningkatkan kekayaan orang Melayu berlipat kali ganda apabila melabur dengan emas.

Memang benar sistem ArRahnu sudah lama diwujudkan selaku pajak gadai Islam dan penggadai memperoleh setakat 65% daripada nilai emas yang dipajakkan. Pada waktu yang sama upah simpan antara 0.5 sehingga 1% dikenakan untuk kadar maksimum selama 6 bulan. Bagi pihak koperasi, ia boleh memberikan pinjaman untuk membeli emas yang disimpan selaku cagaran oleh koperasi dan ahli diberikan 65% daripada nilai emas yang disimpan dan boleh mengenakan sedikit faedah yang jauh lebih rendah daripada upah simpan melalui ArRahnu.

Kita mempunyai satu-satunya badan koperasi yang memiliki kaitan dengan beberapa koperasi yang lain dan diurus dengan betul serta berhati-hati dalam porfolio pelaburannya iaitu Angkasa. Angkasa boleh mengambil langkah awal ini yang bakal menguntungkan sejumlah besar keahlian koperasi negara ini. Sekian lama orang Melayu tidak begitu mengambil berat tentang pelaburan emas tulen ini dan banyak pengaruh seperti FOREX yang mengalih perhatian orang Melayu kepada satu-satu pelaburan yang berisiko tinggi.

Satu-satu syarikat bumiputera yang terbabit dengan urusan jual beli emas ini ialah syarikat Serambi Emas yang mempunyai akses kepada London Gold Bullion Market dan pasaran emas di Switzerland, Jepun, Australia dan Dubai.

*Allahyarham DATO’ SALLEH MAJID ialah bekas Presiden Bursa Saham Kuala Lumpur (kini Bursa Malaysia)